Which of the Steelers 2012 Draft Picks Will Fail?

IF you’ve found this page in June our July of 2012, you might be head scratching over the current poll because the Pittsburgh Steelers2012 Draft Class is being met with tremendous fanfare. An overwhelming number of fans in a previous poll were ready to anoint David DeCastro as the next Alan Faneca.

Fortune shined the Steelers favor, allowing them draft the best players available without needing to reach. 

• Or so the tale goes.

Truthfully, having David DeCastro slip to them in the first round was likely an incredible stroke of luck for the Steelers. And, prior to his positive drug test, Mike Adams had been pegged as a sure first rounder.

There’s no doubt that the Steelers 2012 Draft Class is a group brimming with potential. 

• But with every draft class the challenge lines in transforming that potential into to production.

In other words in when the Steelers convene camp in Latrobe a month from now reality will begin to set in.

• And that reality dictates that some of these draft day superstars will fail in the NFL.

As pointed out here recently, many of the same things begin said about the Steelers 2012 draft class were also being said about Pittsburgh’s 2008 draftees (click here for the article.)

Kevin Colbert leads one of the finest scouting efforts in the NFL. Colbert’s record in the first round is the envy of the league (click herefor a pick-by-pick breakdown of Kevin Colbert’s first round success.)

Yet my quick, back of the envelop calculations reveal that even Colbert has only picked average 2.5 quality contributors per draft. 

Rebecca Rollett, writing on Behind the Steel Curtain, has done a more exhaustive study of Colbert’s early, middle, and late round picksand, while her conclusions are slightly more generous than mine, they show that Kevin Colbert is ahead of his peers. (Full disclosure: I also write for Behind the Steel Curtain.) 

• So be it. It’s likely that Colbert has drafted a couple of three studs in waiting.

But that doesn't change the simple fact that some of these men simply won’t make the transition to life in the NFL.

I don’t say this to be a naysayer, but rather inject a little dose of reality into a conversation where many are already ranking the Steelers 2012 Draft along side the Steelers historic 1974 Draft.

No one would be happier if the 1974 prediction comes to bear because that would likely mean more Super Bowls in the Steelers future.

But basic math tells us that a 1974 repeat, or a even a near repeat is not likely. And that means that some of Aprils “Can’t Miss” prospects will. 

• Who will fall through the cracks?

Will David DeCastro prove to be the new Huey Richardson? Might Mike Adams prove to be a Ricky Williams soul mate? Could Alameda Ta’amueat himself out of the league?

I don’t pretend to know, but I do offer you the chance to make your voice heard.

Take a moment to vote in the poll above or better yet, offer your reasons behind your vote in the comment section.

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