Steelers 2013 Draft Needs: Quarterback + (Punter & Kicker)

Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin play it close to the vest. Both men made it through their press conference prior to the 2013 NFL Draft without mentioning the name of a single collegiate player.

Colbert, however, did let his field craft slip at the NFL owners meetings when he refused to rule out drafting a quarterback in the upcoming draft.

In years past that’s the only position he’s ruled out drafting.

• Don’t be fooled though, the Steelers will not draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft

However, the Steelers could be in the market for a quarterback sooner than in year’s past, not having taken a signal callers since drafting Dennis Dixon in the 5th round of their now maligned 2008 NFL Draft Class.

Ben Roethlisberger is entrenched as the Steelers starter, he’s only 31 and still has 3 years left on the contract he signed in 2008. Yes Ben is getting older, and that process may be sped up by the hits and injuries he’s taken.

But it is too early to think of grooming let alone drafting a successor.

• And the Steelers have glaring needs elsewhere. 

With Bruce Gradowski under contract for two years, and the option of bringing back Charlie Batch apparently still viable, the Steelers should in no way think quarterback before day three of the draft, if even then.

Forget About Kickers and Punters

Same goes for kickers and punters. While Drew Butler can improve, there’s no need to use a draft pick on a punter – we saw what happened the last time they did that.  And Shaun Suisham kicked incredibly well in 2012. Drafting a kicker would be a waste.

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Steelers 2008 Draft Class Now Officially a Wash

There’s a peculiarity in the methodology of those who do “serious” NFL Draft evaluation and it lies in basing a drafting organization’s grade on whether or not the player is still in the NFL as opposed to still with the drafting organization.

• By that measure, the Steelers performance in the 2008 NFL Draft could still grade out well – not that anyone in Pittsburgh will benefit

The “Serious” qualification is necessary, because NFL Draft Evaluation is plagued by day after “who won and who lost” draft analysis that generates page views and sparks discussion but is ultimately meaningless.

• The Steelers 2008 draft reveals flaws of both “serious” and instant draft analysis.

Not 48 hours had passed since the end of the 2008 draft and the so-called experts were praising the Steelers for claiming Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed, two of the supposed “steals” from the 2008. Beyond that the Steelers had added needed depth at linebacker, offensive line and perhaps had netted themselves a long-term back up quarterback.

Steelers Nation has had painful reminders in just how far target the instant analysis of the 2008 draft fell. The 2013 season promises to offer an equally clarifying less on more serious analysis.

Maturing of a Draft Class

Serious NFL draft evaluation can only begin 3 years after a draft and ultimately should extend further. Yes first round picks should contribute or at least “show something” in their first year. Other draft picks should carve out back up slots and/or contribute on special teams.

But developing talent and working it into your system takes time.

Kevin Colbert’s best NFL draft came in 2002. In the class 2002’s third season the Steelers won 15 games and in their fourth NFL season the Steelers won Super Bowl XL.

• That’s no coincidence. 

True, Kendall Simmons started right away, Antwaan Randle El blossomed as a third receiver and kick returner, while Larry Foote started a few games for Kendrell Bell.

But the full impact of the Steelers 2002 Draft Class wasn’t felt until those players fully matured with El taking on a starting role, Foote and Chris Hope becoming full time starters, Verron Hayes showing himself to be capable reserve running back, and even Lee Mays showing himself to be a serviceable practice squad/53rd man on the roster who can make a couple of catches when you need them.

• Brett Keisel’s case shows why the evaluation window must be extended, as he did not break the starting lineup until 2006 but has been a fixture ever since.

Given that example, the Steelers 2008 Draft Class should be peaking into their primes, to the Black and Gold’s Benefit…

No Player for the 2008 Draft Remains with the Steelers

…Those still playing from the Steelers 2008 Draft Class might in fact be peaking into their primes in 2013, but unfortunately none of them will be doing it for Pittsburgh.

• Linebacker Mike Humpal, the Steelers 2008 6th round pick never saw an NFL roster, so “Life’s Work” began for him at a young age.

• Limas Sweed of course is famous for dropping sure touchdowns in the playoffs vs. San Diego and Baltimore and then tearing his ACL during the 2010 off season. He’s been out of football since.

Legend holds that during summer 2008 at Latrobe Mike Tomlin matched Bruce Davis one-on-one vs. Tony Hills with the challenge that he was “going to make a player out of one of you.”  Davis, the Steelers 3rd round pick from 2008 was a total bust and out of the NFL by then end of ’09.

Tony Hills presents a more curious case. Jim Wexell once compared the Steelers 2008 4th round pick to John Jackson. But while Jackson was starting in his second year, Hills stayed on the Steelers roster for two years without dressing.

In 2010 he shocked Steelers Nation by not only pushing for a roster spot but pushing for time under the tutelage of Sean Kugler. He saw spot duty during 2010, and got a shot at guard during the 2011 preseason. Hills couln’t cut it at guard and got cut.

But that was not the end of the line for Hills. He got signed by Denver, and then Bruce Arians brought him to Indianapolis, where he not only played in five games but started in one.

• Perhaps Hills is another late bloomer like Brett Keisel. Regardless, it won’t be to the Steelers benefit. 

Dennis Dixon was one of the most surprising and intriguing picks of the Steelers 2008 draft class. He only started three games in Pittsburgh and wanted out after being unable to unseat Charlie Batch and Byron Leftwich. Dixon is in Philly now, where the word is he’ll get a shot at starting.

Ryan Mundy entered free agency looking like someone the Steelers could and should get back if they wanted back. New York signed him away. Mundy might salvage something from a career that was trending down, but he can’t help salvage the 2008 draft class.

The “Star” of the 2008 draft class was of course to be Rashard Mendenhall. Rashard Mendenhall was no bust, and played as top five back in his best games. Mendenhall wore out his welcome in Pittsburgh East and is now in Pittsburgh West, with another shot at attaining the consistency needed to attain his potential.

“Potential.” “Potential” was the watch word here after the 2008 draft. The Steelers had stockpiled potential. Unlocking that potential at first frustrated and ultimately remained elusive.

Now Arizona, Indianapolis, New York and Philadelphia can see if they can benefit from what Pittsburgh has termed a “mistake” or in other words, their 2008 draft class.

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Mike Tomlin Suspends Mendenhall, Makes Statement

Fans throughout Steelers Nation questioned the team's commitment to winning in the wake of the shocking defeat to the Chargers.

Mike Tomlin has asked similar questions, but unlike the rest of the fan base, he's acted upon it.

Late on Tuesday word spread that the Steelers have suspended 2008 first round draft pick Rashard Mendenhall for "Conduct detrimental to the team." Specifically, Mendenhall did not show up at Heinz Field after he'd been told earlier in the week that he would not dress for the Chargers game.

Two fumbles and a poor performance vs. the Cleveland Browns led to Mendenhall's demotion to third string. Mendenhall said all of the right things and was visible on the sidelines of the Steelers victory over Baltimore.

But now Mendenhall's actions have spoken far louder than any words he might have uttered. Rashard Mendenhall had an obligation to be with his teammates for the Chargers game. First, he needed to show he is a "hand in the pile" type player, second he needed to offer support and advice to his fellow rushers.

But it goes beyond that. Even though Mendenhall had been told he would not dress for the game, there is a chance the Steelers might have needed him. Guys can and do get hurt in warm ups. That's how Bubby Brister earned his first start back in 1986. Jerome Bettis showed up for the 2001 AFC Divisional Playoff game vs. Baltimore expecting to play, but the pain killing shot made his entire leg numb.

These things happen. Who knows? Had something like that happened, Mendenhall could dressed, gotten into the game, and won his starting job back. But he wasn't there for his team.

The chances of Mendenhall is a free agent resigning with the Steelers were slim to begin with. Now its fairly safe to say that he will not be a Pittsburgh Steeler in 2013.

Mike Tomlin made a statement in benching Mendenhall two weeks ago. Perhaps it might have been a little harsh, considering that neither Jonathan Dwyer nor Issac Redman had done much better in the debacle vs. Cleveland.

• But it was the right move then. 

Suspending Mendenhall now is even more right. This type of nonchalance contributed mightily to the loss vs. San Diego, and sending someone home without pay sends a strong signal that it will not be tolerated.

Willie Colon Out, DeCastro to Start

One first round pick begins exiting stage left, another steps into the spotlight. As Ivan Cole of Behind the Steel Curtain (full disclosure, I also write at BTSC) pointed out at the time, Willie Colon's pancaking of Vontaze Burfick during the Bengals game marked a turning point for the Steelers offensive line and its running game. From that moment the Steelers offensive line began to consistently win battles up front.

Unfortunately, Colon got injured in the loss to the Ravens, and the line has not been the same since, particularly the run blocking.

Colon started the San Diego game, but could not finish. Mike Tomlin confirmed that he'll have surgery this week. How he responds will determine whether or not he heads to IR for the third straight year.

In Colon's absence, the Steelers solution has been to start Doug Legursky at center and move Maurkice Pouncey to guard. That worked well in the victory over the Ravens. Not so much vs. the Chargers. But as Colon will be out for a while, to say the least, Mike Tomlin has discarded the band aid approach, and instead is starting rookie first round draft pick David DeCastro.

DeCastro was of course injured in preseason, and made his return to the active roster a few weeks ago. But he's only played special teams thus far.

Ramon Foster will shift over to left guard and DeCastro will start at right guard.

Its yet another incarnation of the Steelers offensive line in what has been an almost three year, non-stop musical chairs expirement.

The Steelers will need more from their offensive line if they're to prevail vs. Dallas.

Hopefully David DeCastro can bring it for them.

Allen and Lewis Injured Too....

It never rains but it pours. As in monsoon.

Both Keenan Lewis and Cortez Allen suffered hip flexors vs. the Cowboys. Lewis is expected to play but Allen is doubtful. That means that Curtis Brown, who did not play well last week, might start and that Josh Victoria and David Van Dyke will also likely see time in the secondary.

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Which of the Steelers 2012 Draft Picks Will Fail?

IF you’ve found this page in June our July of 2012, you might be head scratching over the current poll because the Pittsburgh Steelers2012 Draft Class is being met with tremendous fanfare. An overwhelming number of fans in a previous poll were ready to anoint David DeCastro as the next Alan Faneca.

Fortune shined the Steelers favor, allowing them draft the best players available without needing to reach. 

• Or so the tale goes.

Truthfully, having David DeCastro slip to them in the first round was likely an incredible stroke of luck for the Steelers. And, prior to his positive drug test, Mike Adams had been pegged as a sure first rounder.

There’s no doubt that the Steelers 2012 Draft Class is a group brimming with potential. 

• But with every draft class the challenge lines in transforming that potential into to production.

In other words in when the Steelers convene camp in Latrobe a month from now reality will begin to set in.

• And that reality dictates that some of these draft day superstars will fail in the NFL.

As pointed out here recently, many of the same things begin said about the Steelers 2012 draft class were also being said about Pittsburgh’s 2008 draftees (click here for the article.)

Kevin Colbert leads one of the finest scouting efforts in the NFL. Colbert’s record in the first round is the envy of the league (click herefor a pick-by-pick breakdown of Kevin Colbert’s first round success.)

Yet my quick, back of the envelop calculations reveal that even Colbert has only picked average 2.5 quality contributors per draft. 

Rebecca Rollett, writing on Behind the Steel Curtain, has done a more exhaustive study of Colbert’s early, middle, and late round picksand, while her conclusions are slightly more generous than mine, they show that Kevin Colbert is ahead of his peers. (Full disclosure: I also write for Behind the Steel Curtain.) 

• So be it. It’s likely that Colbert has drafted a couple of three studs in waiting.

But that doesn't change the simple fact that some of these men simply won’t make the transition to life in the NFL.

I don’t say this to be a naysayer, but rather inject a little dose of reality into a conversation where many are already ranking the Steelers 2012 Draft along side the Steelers historic 1974 Draft.

No one would be happier if the 1974 prediction comes to bear because that would likely mean more Super Bowls in the Steelers future.

But basic math tells us that a 1974 repeat, or a even a near repeat is not likely. And that means that some of Aprils “Can’t Miss” prospects will. 

• Who will fall through the cracks?

Will David DeCastro prove to be the new Huey Richardson? Might Mike Adams prove to be a Ricky Williams soul mate? Could Alameda Ta’amueat himself out of the league?

I don’t pretend to know, but I do offer you the chance to make your voice heard.

Take a moment to vote in the poll above or better yet, offer your reasons behind your vote in the comment section.

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Steelers 2008 Draft Serves as Cautionary Tale for 2012...

Christmas came early at the South Side. And we’re not talking about the Christmas in April volunteer effort.

No, Santa Claus really did visit the Steelers.

To start, he allowed a high first round pick to fall throughout the entire first round of the draft, until he landed right at the Steelers feet.

For an encore, he allowed another pick whom many scouts had graded as first round talent to fall all the way to the bottom of the second round, where again, the Steelers snapped him right up.

Not be outdone, old St. Nick did it again, allowing another player to fall to the Steelers in the fifth round who shouldn’t have been there. Some people are already calling it the steal of the draft.

Sound familiar?

This is of course the narrative that many are affixing to the Steelers haul in the 2012 NFL Draft. Hopefully, they’re right.

But recent history provides a cautionary tale. Because everything that is being said about the Steelers 2012 draft was said, almost word for word, about their 2008 draft.

You remember, the 2008 draft that pundits such as John Harris implored the Steelers to avoid?

In 2008 Rashard Mendenhall was one of the players that the Steelers decided they would not pass on if he fell to them. Yet fall Mendenhall did, and viola, he was a Steeler.

The same process repeated itself with Limas Sweed. Many had Sweed rated as an otherwise first round pick with the only knock against him an ailing wrist. Sweed fell and the Steelers got him.

While no one was quite calling Dennis Dixon “the steal of the draft,” many said that were it not for injuries suffered during his final year in college, he too had talent worth of a first or second rounder.

Days after the 2008 NFL Draft, many rushed to declare the Steelers a success. Peter Bean of Behind the Steel Curtain (full disclosure, I also write for BTSC) went so far as to declare the Steelers 2008 effort as “The Best Steelers Draft in Years.” He explained his view this way:

And this year, unlike several of recent past, our Steelers drafted tremendous football players who didn't necessarily fit the fans' ideas concerning pressing needs. Pittsburgh's brass probably didn't plan the draft out the way it eventually wound up, but when the draft unfolded as it did, they took advantage.

That's good drafting, and the Pittsburgh Steelers should be - in my opinion - on any short list of teams which performed best on draft day.

Four years later, any assessment of the Steelers 2008 effort must carry a decidedly different tone.

Rating the Steelers 2008 Draft

• 1st Round, Rashard Mendenhall, RB

Mendenhall has been generally been a good running back who has flashed greatness. Were better players on the board passed over? Perhaps, but Mendenhall was a good pick.

• 2nd Round, Limas Sweed, WR

Sweed was best known his drops in the divisional playoffs vs. San Diego and in the AFC Championship game. Injuries and mental health issues made him an early camp casualty in 2011. Bust.

• 3rd Round, Bruce Davis, LB

Bruce Davis dressed for 5 games and recorded no stats for the Steelers. Total Bust

• 4th Round, Tony Hills, OT

Hills held a clipboard in 2008 and 2009, got a taste of action in 2010, but even Sean Kugler was unable to help him. Bust.

• 5th Round, Dennis Dixon, QB

Dixon had his shot at the big time in 2010. He did “OK” but Charlie Batch earned credit for carrying the Steelers in Ben’s absence. If its true that the Steelers did get decent value from Dixon, its also true that they didn’t get a groomable backup.

• 6a Round, Mike Humpal, LB

Got cut in camp. Bust.

• 6b Round, Ryan Mundy, Safety

Mundy made the practice squad and has since developed into a serviceable back up.

That’s one quality starter at a crucial skill position, a solid back up, and a spot role player rounded out by four busts.

Steelers 2008 Draft vs. Steelers 2012 Draft….

There are important differences between the two drafts. Neither running back nor wide receiver were urgent needs in 2008, yet when players fell to them, the Steelers took them. That’s called sticking to your board.

The same thing happened in 2012, but this time the falling players also coincided with the Steelers needs.

And while any objective analysis must render Limas Sweed as a total bust, many forget that what made those drops so spectacular was the fact that he had totally burned the secondaries covering him.
In other words, Steelers scouts correctly evaluated Sweed in terms of talent. But that’s why Sweed remains such a cautionary tale.

The NFL Draft is as much an art as it is a science.

Every draft pick comes with an X-Factor.

In 1991, the Pittsburgh Steelers had Huey Richardson rated highly. So did many other NFL teams. Yet he was so bad that Bill Cowher traded Richardson to the Redskins before his second season and the Redskins cut him shortly thereafter.

Steelers Nation is excited about the arrival of David DeCastro, Mike Adams, Sean Spence, Alameda Ta'amu, and Chris Rainey.

And so they should be. Each man represents a huge potential shot in the arm at an area of need. The key there is “potential.”

The 2012 draft could go down as one of the best in Steelers history. Or it could go down like the 2008 draft, where the team hit on a few players, but missed on many more.

In 3 or 4 years we’ll know.

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